Date: Thu, 07 Jul 1994 09:13:44 EST
From: cjr@policy.ho.BoM.GOV.AU (Chris Ryan)

Return Address	- cjr@bom.gov.au
Name		- Christopher Ryan
Organisation	- Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia.
Interest	- Thunderstorm Prediction Tools

I am interested in developing tools which will assist (not 
replace) forecasters in predicting the location, timing and 
probability of thunderstorms, particularly severe thunderstorms. 
I have converted an existing decision tree to a simple expert system 
which, in a single season trial, outperformed independent human 
forecasts.

At present I am investigating the potential of other tools such 
as Bayesian nets, neural nets and case-based reasoning to form 
a suite of tools, perhaps tied together by an expert system, which 
encourage the use of a well-defined forecasting methodology - a 
"Thunderstorm Workbench". I am aware of the mixed results from 
the convection prediction systems in the US Shootouts, but 
suspect that many of those systems tried to do too much.  I'm 
sure that AI can deliver some useful tools without trying to cut the 
human forecaster out of the loop completely.

I would be very interested in hearing from anyone working in 
this area or with ideas which could be applied here.

	Chris Ryan
-----------------------------
Severe Weather Program Office
Bureau of Meteorology
Melbourne, Australia.
Phone: 61 3 669 4546
Fax:   61 3 669 4695
e-mail: cjr@bom.gov.au
-----------------------------